Overestimation of self-reported driving exposure: Results from the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study

Objectives: The accuracy of self-reported driving exposure has questioned the validity of using self-reported mileage to inform research questions. Studies examining the accuracy of self-reported driving exposure compared to objective measures find low validity, with drivers overestimating and underestimating driving distance. The aims of the current study were to (1) examine the discrepancy between self-reported annual mileage and driving exposure the following year and (2) investigate whether these differences depended on age and annual mileage.

Methods: Two estimates of drivers’ self-reported annual mileage collected during vehicle installation (obtained via prestudy questionnaires) and approximated annual mileage driven (based upon Global Positioning System data) were acquired from 3,323 participants who participated in the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study.

Results: A Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there was a significant difference between self-reported and annual driving exposure during participation in SHRP 2, with the majority of self-reported responses overestimating annual mileage the following year, irrespective of whether an ordinal or ratio variable was examined. Over 15% of participants provided self-reported responses with over 100% deviation, which were exclusive to participants underestimating annual mileage. Further, deviations in reporting differed between participants who had low, medium, and high exposure, as well as between participants in different age groups.

Conclusions: These findings indicate that although self-reported annual mileage is heavily relied on for research, such estimates of driving distance may be an overestimate of current or future mileage and can influence the validity of prior research that has utilized estimates of driving exposure.     

Feasibility study of preparation and certification of reference materials for nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide in diffusive samplers

This paper presents the results of a feasability study for the preparation and certification of reference materials (RMs) for nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) in diffusive samplers. RMs for NO(2) were prepared by exposure to gas mixtures in a chamber while the RMs for SO(2) were prepared by liquid spiking. Certification of RMs for NO(2) was found feasible with a certified uncertainty of 5.8% and a proposed shelf life of 5 years. The uncertainty was calculated with contribution from the homogeneity of preparation, stability and transport of the CRMs and from an external verification of the certified value. To reach 5.8% of uncertainty, the contribution of the differences between the results of analysis by ion chromatography and colorimetry must be eliminated. It is proposed to solve this by pre-extracting the samplers with water before analysis. The results of this study indicate that the samplers are stable for at least two years before and after exposure when stored in a refrigerator. By contrast, the certification of RMs for SO(2) was found to not be feasible due to instability problems. This instability was attributed to reaction of sulfate on the walls of the samplers. Alternatively, the preparation of RMs by simultaneous exposure to SO(2) and NO(2) has been tested. Satisfying homogeneities has been reached both for NO(2) and SO(2).     

Trends in land use and land cover change in the protected and communal areas of the Zambezi Region,Namibia

Land management decisions have extensively modified land use and land cover in the Zambezi Region. These decisions are influenced by land tenure classifications, legislation, and livelihoods. Land use and land cover change is an important indicator for quantifying the effectiveness of different land management strategies. However, there has been no evidence on whether protected or communal land tenure is more affected by land use and land cover changes in southern Africa and particularly Namibia. Our study attempted to fill this gap by analyzing the relationship between land use and land cover change and land tenure regimes stratified according to protected and communal area in the Zambezi Region. Multi-temporal Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery were used to determine the temporal dynamics of land use and land cover change from 1984 to 2010. The landscape showed distinctive modifications over the study period; broad trends include the increase in forest land after 1991. However, changes were not uniform across the study areas. Two landscape development stages were deduced: (1) 1984–1991 represented high deforestation and gradual increase in shrub land; (2) 1991–2000 and 2000–2010 represented lower deforestation and slower agropastoral expansion. The results further show clear patterns of the dynamics, magnitude, and direction of land use and land cover change by tenure regime. The study concluded that land tenure has a direct impact on land use and land cover, since it may restrict some activities carried out on the land in the Zambezi Region.